Water AetherwingTier 2
at Grex Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 23.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.3% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Converge Reflections | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |